WTXS31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.2S 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.6S 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 24.2S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.2S 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 30.7S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 33.1S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 58.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION, AND INTO THE CENTER, OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 172258Z SSMI IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS SSMI IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY AND AUTOMATED, SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THIS RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMPETES WITH THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED-RANGE AS THE LLCC TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT RECEIVES OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC SUPPORT DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CURRENT, HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//