WTXS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 57.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 57.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 22.1S 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.6S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.5S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 28.1S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 31.5S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 33.5S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 57.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180526Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS GMI IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. TC BERGUITTA IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY RE-ORIENTING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE (ETT) BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY THAT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//