WTXS31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 56.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 56.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.8S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 24.6S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.8S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 29.3S 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 32.0S 52.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 34.1S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 56.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180907Z AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WRAPS INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS AMSR2 IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, EVEN IMPROVING IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SLIGHTLY AS 06S MOVES AWAY FROM MAURITIUS. TC BERGUITTA IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY RE-ORIENTING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 12 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM SPEED AROUND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//