WTXS31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 24.7S 52.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 27.2S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 30.1S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 31.6S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 33.4S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 53.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST LAYER COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES 190000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 182108Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS DECREASING IN DIAMETER. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC, EVIDENT IN SATELLITE FEATURE TRACK WIND DATA, IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 06S TRACKS POLEWARD. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM. BY TAU 48, TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AROUND 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//