WTXS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 53.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 53.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.9S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 28.7S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 30.9S 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 32.0S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 33.8S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 53.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST LAYER OCCLUDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 190228Z WSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 24 AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 12, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TC BERGUITTA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGHOUT ETT WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF AROUND 40 KNOTS BY THE COMPLETION OF ETT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. //