WTXS31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 51.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 51.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 29.3S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 31.7S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 33.2S 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 34.0S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 50.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION WHICH IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS INTENSE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 191810Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE, NEAR 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN TRACK SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. AFTER TAU 12 TC 06S WILL ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//