WTXS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 27.9S 50.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 50.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 30.6S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 32.6S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 33.8S 52.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 50.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 200015Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS AVERAGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM FMEE, T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 06S IS BEGINNING TO TRACK OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, NEAR 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 AND DECREASE TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//