WTIO30 FMEE 011220



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 76.3 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.5 CI=6.0-



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRESENT WEAKNESSES

IN CONNECTION WITH THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE AND THE POSSIBLE INTRUSION

OF DRY AIR. IN THE LATEST INFRARED DATA, CONVECTION STRENGTHENS WITH

A CONVICTVE RING THAT RESTRUCTURES PROGRESSIVELY, BUT DIFFICULTLY.



AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, CEBILE MOVES

SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD. THIS ORIENTATION IS EARLIER THAN FORECASTED,

SHIFTING THE TRACK EAST TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED TRACK. THE SYSTEM

IS NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT WILL

PROGRESSIVELY INDUCE A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS ORIENTATION WILL BE

FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL ACCELERATION FROM TOMORROW.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO A SLIGHT

INTENSITY GAIN UNTIL TOMORROW MID-DAY, HOWEVER LIMITED BY THE

PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THAT HAS ALREADY AFFECTED CONVECTION. FROM

SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL

QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR.

CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK

OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURES. LASTLY, CEBILE MAY THEN BEGIN

ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH.=