WTIO30 FMEE 020047



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 75.7 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.5+



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE UNDERWENT A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH

A CLEAR EYE PATTERN BACK IN IR IMAGERY. THIS CHANGE MAY BE THE

CONSEQUENCE OF THE TEMPORARILY PASSAGE OVER WARMER WATERS ACCORDING

TO MERCATOR DATA. 2301Z SSMIS SWATH CONFIRM THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH A

WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A MEAN OF THE

LAST DVORAK ESTIMATES. A BUOY LOCATED AROUND 60KM FROM THE CENTER

MEASURED A MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE OF 977HPA AT 23Z.



CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY TURN

SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL

OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS INDUCE A

MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT SHOULD START DETERIORATING IN THE

NEXT HOURS. A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT WILL SET UP

TODAY AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH A ROSSBY WAVE

BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO

DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH

AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE

VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=