WTIO30 FMEE 021814



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 76.1 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/07 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.0+



THE EYE PATTERN OF CEBILE IS MORE PRETTY SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS, THIS

ALLOW TO MAINTAIN OR TO IMPROVE ITS INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER,

CEBILE IS NOW IN A LONG-TERM PHASE OF WEAKENING. 6 HOURS AGO, AT

1200UTC, CEBILE IS PAST NEAR BUOY 2301521, 30 NM NORTHEAST. THE

MEASURED PRESSURE WAS 974.1HPA.



CEBILE BEGIN ITS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE TRACK TOWARDS THE

SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IT SLIGHTLY. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF

A TROUGH AT SOUTH ALLOWS TO MOVE EAST HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS

ORIENTED THE CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL

ACCELERATION.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NO LONGER ADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE

CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWS

A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST

TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST, AND START ITS

POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FAR

FROM THE CENTER, IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.=