WTIO30 FMEE 031307 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20172018 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 77.9 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :69 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 160 48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 130 NW: 100 64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 48H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2018/02/07 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2018/02/08 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.0 CI=4.5+ THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN THIS MORNING HAS STOPPED. CEBILE HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE ON VIS IMAGERY AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE HAS POPPED UP ON EIR IMAGERY. LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY (AMSR2 AT 0728Z AND AMSUB N19 AT 1045Z) SHOW A MW SIGNATURE THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS THEREFORE UNCHANGED. THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT 600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S. THE ACCELERATING FORWARD MOTION AND THE INDUCED LOWERING OF THE RELATIVE SHEAR MAY HAVE FINALLY PLAY TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING TREND TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER SYMMETRICAL WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS (POST-TROPICAL PHASES). LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES MAY STRENGTHEN TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL SUBSIDENCE. A STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.=