WTIO30 FMEE 040026 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20172018 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :70 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 160 48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2018/02/08 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2018/02/09 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.5+ CI=4.5- THE WEAKENING TREND SEEMS TO BE GOING ON , WITH A PATTERN BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY SHEAR STRUCTURE, EVEN IF AN EYE DISCONNECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALWAYS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY (SSMIS AT 2236Z) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE. THE WEAKENING TREND REMAINS SLOW AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD IN THE SOUTH AND THE FORWARD MOTION INDUCES FOR THE MOMENT LOWERING OF THE RELATIVE SHEAR. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS ARRIVING OVER WATERS OF REDUCE ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT 600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S TRACKING WESTWARDS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER SYMMETRICAL WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS (POST-TROPICAL PHASES). LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES MAY STRENGTHEN TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL SUBSIDENCE. A STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.=