WTIO30 FMEE 040610 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20172018 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 79.7 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 190 34 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SW: 300 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2018/02/07 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2018/02/08 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP 120H: 2018/02/09 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , FILLING UP 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.0 CI=4.0- THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERIES SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BUT WITH WARMER AND WARMER TOP CLOUDS. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IS CONSISTENT WITH SATCON ESTIMATION AND WITH THE LAST 0331Z PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH. THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT 600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S TRACKING WESTWARDS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RAPID AND GENERATES A STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY A STRONG CONFLUENCE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SUPPLIES A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT SUSTAINS DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SO, CEBILE IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHOULD KEEP A WARM CORE. TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT ABOVE THE CIRCULATION. THE DECREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. BUT, WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN INCREASING SOUTHERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BEHING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL RIDGE SHOULD INITIATE THE FILLING OF CEBILE.=