WTIO30 FMEE 280016



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/28 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/01/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5+



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CONFIGURATION EVOLVES WITH A

BEGINNING OF FORMATION OF EYE ON THE LATEST INFRARED DATA. HOWEVER

CONVECTION REMAINS PREDOMINANT IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IS PLACED UNDER A WEAK

SHEAR, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK

SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN

ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. AND IN THE

MIDDLE OF WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN ITS SOUTH-EAST PART ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

INCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STOP, THE RESTART EASTWARD.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AS THE

UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK. HOWEVER, CEBILE TRANSITS ON AREAS

WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. THIS IS ALL THE MORE TRUE DURING

THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE'S TRACK WHICH SHOULD INDUCE THE STOPPING OF

THE INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT OF THE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST,

DESPITE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.=