WTXS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.8S 76.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.5S 77.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.3S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 21.3S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 23.4S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 26.0S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 75.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH THE PREVIOUS RAGGED EYE BECOMING VERY CLEAR AND INCREASING IN SIZE TO 55 NM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 020021Z GPM 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH AN INTENSE EYEWALL COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE CLEAR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW, AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 113 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM REACHES LOCAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WHILE TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28 DEG C) AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S HAS BEGUN ITS POLEWARD TURN AND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. BEYOND TAU 24 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH DECREASING SSTS. TC 07S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. THE EUROPEAN MODELS AND CTCX REMAIN WESTERN OUTLIERS, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST, WITH HWRF BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER, 470NM EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//