WTXS31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 60 NM EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 0202044Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B PASS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED, THE EIR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND: BOTH FIXES HAVE DECREASED IN CURRENT INTENSITY AND FORECAST T-NUMBER FROM THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (5-15 KNOTS), MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28-29 DEG C), AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WANING, WITH TC 07S ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS AND LOWER SSTS AFTER TAU 48. TC 07S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS CAPTURE THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTERN TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH A LATER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN SPEED AND SPREAD IN LATER TAUS. HWRF IS A PARTICULAR EASTERN OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY OF TC 07S LONGER THAN OTHER MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//