WTXS31 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 14.5S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.0S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.2S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.2S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 15.4S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION SYMMETRICALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 07S, WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION IS DETERMINED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS WELL AS A 271611Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS OF 45 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 DEGREES C, WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) THAT IS DECREASING ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST, BUT IS GOOD IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. AS THE VWS DECREASES, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS WHILE BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS TO ITS SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE COMPLICATED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, BUT GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS TURNS TC 07S TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AT TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GREATER SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. //