WTXS31 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 82.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 82.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.1S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.8S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.2S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.4S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 16.6S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.8S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.6S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 82.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 12 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. AN ANALYSIS OF 281900Z IMAGERY INDICATES 07S IS STILL INTENSIFYING AND MAY NOW BE T6.5 TO T7.0. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, WHICH INDICATES CEBILE HAS TRACKED INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS MAINTAINING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, AND AN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS TRACKING OVER A REGION OF ENHANCED OHC. TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. CEBILE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN SLOWING FORWARD MOTION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STR, ALLOWING A POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A BI-FURCATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH THE UKMET MODELS INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST IS PLACED WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION SET BECAUSE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A STRONG RE- CURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS STILL RAPIDLY INTENSFYING, WITH T6.5 TO T7.0 EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND THAT, THERE IS NOTHING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), HOWEVER, NO ERC IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. BEYOND TAU 48, WEAKENING OCEANIC SUPPORT AND INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. DUE TO THE SHARP BI- FURCATION IN DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND 300300Z.//