WTXS31 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.3S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.4S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.4S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.7S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.4S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.9S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 81.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 731 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE 0N A COMPACT AND SUPER-DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 290353Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE (15-KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THIS DYNAMIC BALANCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINTAINING THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, A COMPETING STEERING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TRIGGER A SOUTHWESTWARD RECURVE AS THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS STAGE, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CAUSING GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD OUT AT THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE RECARVATURE WITH EGRR AS THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z, AND 301500Z.//