WTXS31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE. CONTINUING THE TREND NOTICED IN THE EARLIER WARNING, THE EYE HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MEASURED AT 31NM. A 310031Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SOLID RING OF IMPRESSIVE AND INTENSE CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, HEDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.9 (112 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO SOME PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. AT THE MOMENT, THIS PRESSURE IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AS THERE ARE NO HINDRANCES TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN LEADS A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A TURN A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS ARE THE ONLY REMAINING EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE CONCENTRATION OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL TRACK, THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//