WTXS31 PGTW 310900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.0S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.5S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.2S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.5S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.6S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 23.4S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 77.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE, A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE EYE SIZE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ABOUT 30NM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 310356Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE DIAMETER AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION SEEN IN MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) THAT IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO A NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SMOOTH BUT TIGHTER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN SHOWN IN EARLIER RUNS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR TO BUT JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//