WTXS31 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.0S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.7S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.5S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.1S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 21.2S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 24.0S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 07S HAS WEAKENED VERY SLIGHTLY WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING AND WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STEERING RIDGE. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF POTENTIAL OCEAN SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING BY THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM, ENABLING TC 07S TO APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS TC 07S PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS TC 07S INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, SPREAD INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT VARYING IMPACTS OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//