WTPS31 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 161.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 161.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 19.5S 162.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.1S 163.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 23.4S 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 26.2S 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 33.0S 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 42.3S 170.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 161.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND RAGGED AS IT ACCELERATED POLEWARD, AS IT STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ON AN ELONGATED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE WITH A SHALLOW FORMATIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-KNOT PLUS) VWS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ACCELERATES POLEWARD. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT GETS ABSORBED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WIND FIELD. TC 08S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AND TRANSFORM INTO A COLD CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.//