WTPS31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 25.0S 164.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 164.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 28.4S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 32.8S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 37.6S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 164.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTSPECTRAL IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY 292230Z ASMU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A VERY WEAK, EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 292232Z SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING A COUPLE 40 KNOT WIND BARBS JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER MARGINAL (26 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION FROM 292000Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALIES EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE, THEN COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC FEHI WILL INTENSITY SLIGHTLY AS IT UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//