WTPS31 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 26.4S 163.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 163.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.0S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 34.2S 164.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 163.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTSPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 300526Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING AN EXPOSED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON A 292232Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A COUPLE 40 KNOT WIND BARBS JUST EAST OF THE LLCC FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER MARGINAL (26 DEGREES C) SST. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION FROM 300400Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO AN ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE, THEN COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. TC FEHI WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//