WTPS31 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 28.1S 163.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 163.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 32.1S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 163.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A LARGE COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 301057Z MMHS 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING AN EXPOSED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON A PARTIAL 301058Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD REGION 30- 35 KNOTS EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF 40 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER MARGINAL (25 DEGREES C) SST. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION FROM 300900Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING FROM AN ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE TO A COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. TC FEHI WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 22 FEET.//