WTPN31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072221ZFEB2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 147.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 147.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 10.9N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 10.0N 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 9.1N 141.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 8.7N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 9.5N 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 9.9N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 9.6N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 147.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS AND A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ANIMATION DOES REVEAL SOME MID LEVEL TURNING IN THE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION; HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT AN LLC ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 081647Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTRAL AREA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 20 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LLC AND SUPPORTED BY A 081005Z OSCAT IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VWS AND GREATER THAN 28C SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 12 AND THEN DUE WEST BY TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNTIL TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE SSTS AND FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 72, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES IS EXPECTED TO SPIN DOWN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 072230).//