WTPS31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 175.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 175.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.8S 172.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.2S 169.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.8S 167.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.2S 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.3S 172.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 20.7S 176.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 20.9S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 174.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALONG WITH A BULLSEYE 082124Z METOP-A ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE CORRESPONDING METOP- A ASCAT WIND BARBS IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ARE MUCH WEAKER (PREDOMINANTLY 10 TO 20 KTS). THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH OF TC 09P IS CAUSING THIS ASYMMETRY IN THE LLC AND AIDING IN SPIN UP. AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS) AND ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND ACTUAL INTENSITY AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 09P IS IN A FAVORABLE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE LOCATED JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO STRONG DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW OBSERVED OVER THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) AS WELL. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND THEN DEFLECT TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 09P WILL CONTINUE ITS RECURVE TO THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BY 30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY UNTIL TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. AFTER TAU 48, GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS 09P TRACKS BACK UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. DUE TO THE OBVIOUS STEERING FEATURES, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//