WTPS31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 174.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 174.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.2S 171.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.3S 169.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.5S 168.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.0S 169.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.8S 173.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.5S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.0S 177.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 173.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 090318Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 09P. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 082125Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. TC 09P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//