WTPS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 171.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 171.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.5S 174.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.2S 176.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.0S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.0S 178.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.6S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 23.0S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.4S 168.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 172.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 111801Z 91GHZ SSMIS. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED 15NM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE OUTFLOW PREDOMINANTLY ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. TC GITA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNTIL AFTER TAU 48 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING VWS. TC 09P BEGINS TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER SSTS IN LATER TAUS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UNTIL LATER TAUS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE VARIATIONS IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//