WTPS31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.9S 173.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 22.4S 171.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 23.4S 169.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 24.6S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 27.6S 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 31.6S 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 36.5S 170.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 174.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED 30 NM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP AND A 141626Z 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE MICROWAVE EYE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND NFFN TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION. CONCURRENTLY WITH INCREASING VWS, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD OF 25S. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC GITA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//