WTPS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 23.2S 169.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 169.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 24.1S 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 25.2S 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 26.6S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 28.1S 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 33.5S 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 39.3S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 43.8S 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 168.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED AND SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 160334Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TC 09P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 72 TC 09P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ZEALAND NEAR TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//