WTPS31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 037 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 26.7S 163.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 163.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 28.4S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 30.7S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 33.8S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 37.3S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 42.3S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 163.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALL REMAINING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 172238Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 50 KNOT BARBS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE 60 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI SUPPORTED BY THE 172238Z ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON STEADY STATE CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 172021Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE HEDGED HIGHER THAN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FRON T2.0 TO 3.0 (30 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THIS THRESHOLD AS TC 09P TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 18 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS TC 09P TRANSITIONS, ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ALLOWING INTENSITY TO REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS DESPITE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS. TC 09P WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL OVER NEW ZEALAND AT TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//