WTPS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 038 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 162.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 162.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 29.4S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 32.2S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 35.7S 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 38.9S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 43.7S 175.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 162.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 09P. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN 180306Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 172240Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AS TC 09P TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//