WTPS31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 041 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 30.9S 161.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.9S 161.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 34.3S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 38.3S 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 42.6S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 31.7S 162.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC WITH ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED POLEWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON THE EVIDENT LLCC IN AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS HEDGED HIGHER THAN MULTI- AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, STILL VERY MUCH INTACT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RECENT PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09P IS STILL A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, IT IS STARTING TO DISPLAY SUBTROPICAL FEATURES SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDE. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 OVER NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//