WTPS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 042 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 32.6S 162.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.6S 162.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 36.2S 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 40.5S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 43.9S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 33.5S 163.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 190550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC AND DECAYING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182303Z PARTIAL METOP- A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT PASS, 50 KNOT WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY IN A TIGHT RADIUS AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12 TC 09P WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//