WTXS31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.6S 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.4S 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.6S 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.9S 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 120.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 171033Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A 171033Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 10S WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 10S WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 12 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 10S WILL THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. TC 10S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD TRACK. BASED ON IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//