WTPS32 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051352ZMAR2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 168.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.5S 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.9S 166.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.2S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.5S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 27.0S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 32.9S 175.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 168.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS THE CONVECTION REORIENTED AND DEEPENED CLOSER TO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 061036Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLC THAT INCLUDES 35-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS MITIGATED BY ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. A ROBUST WESTERLY OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THESE OVERALL POSITIVE DYNAMICS ARE, HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY A RECEDING MID-LATITUDE LOW. TC 12P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72 AFTER IT MAKES THE RECURVE POLEWARD, ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVING TRACK WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 051400).//