WTPS32 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 168.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 168.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.5S 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.9S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.6S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.6S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.0S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 28.4S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 34.0S 176.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 168.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROADENING MASS OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 061502Z SSMIS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT EIR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 061417Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS AND A 061740Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VWS ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED SUBSTANTIALLY (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72 ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS AFTER IT MAKES THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE CURRENT LAND INTERACTION AND RECENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//