WTPS32 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 166.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 166.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.3S 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.9S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 20.3S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 25.5S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 31.2S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 37.4S 178.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 166.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE IR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 AND CONSISTENT WITH A NEWLY-FORMED EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12P HAS BEGUN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48 AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEING ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL, IN TURN, RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 72 WITH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND THE WIND FIELD EXPANDING. HOLA WILL BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AND NVGM AS THE NOTABLE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS IN THE NEAR AND EXTENDED TERM, RESPECTIVELY. THERE ALSO REMAINS DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED ESPECIALLY DURING RECURVATURE AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET JGSM AND NVGM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//