WTPS32 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 165.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 165.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.4S 165.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.5S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.4S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.8S 170.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 30.0S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 36.0S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 165.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE MOSTLY CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH DEEP SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND IT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 080230Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 94 KNOTS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PHFO, KNES, NFFN, AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, TC 12P IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. IN THE SHORT TERM, TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, TC 12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND JGSM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48 THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//