WTPS32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 166.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.9S 168.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.5S 170.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.5S 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 29.8S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 167.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 091112Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS BUT CONTINUES ALONG A WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AND A 090746Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VWS (UP TO 90 KNOTS) AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 36, TC 12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS VWS DRASTICALLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//