WTPS32 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 168.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 168.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.5S 170.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 25.3S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.5S 173.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 31.6S 174.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 168.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL (14 NM DIAMETER) IRREGULAR EYE THAT REFORMED BRIEFLY AT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, FROM 091720Z TO 091800Z, BEFORE FILLING IN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 091800Z EIR IMAGE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 091649Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED IN THE ASSOCIATED 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AND HEDGED LOW DUE TO THE FLEETING NATURE OF THE EYE FEATURE THAT THESE FIXES WERE BASED ON. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES CELSIUS. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE UNFAVORABLE (BELOW 40 KJ); HOWVEVER, THIS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR LIMITING LIMITING FACTOR AS TC 12P ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS VWS DRASTICALLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND CONSENSUS MEMBERS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//