WTPS32 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 169.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 24.3S 172.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 27.7S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 30.5S 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 33.6S 175.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 170.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THERE IS WAVERING CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE DECOUPLING OF THE BULK CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER LEVELS. A 092036Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS THE PREVIOUS EYE FEATURE NOW NEARLY UNRECOGNIZABLE WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE HEDGING ON THE LOWER END OF CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY WARM NEAR 27C DEGREES BUT DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY POLEWARD OF 28 DEGREES SOUTH. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EDGE OF THE STR BY TAU 24. INCREASING WIND SHEAR FROM THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 TC 12P WILL TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL COLD CORE SYSTEM. TC 12P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//