WTPS32 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 172.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 29.1S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 32.2S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 35.6S 177.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 173.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION GETTING SHEARED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATED POLEWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS) AND COOL SSTS (26C AND DROPPING). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 101052Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND THE PGTW DVORAK FIX OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND RAPIDLY DECAY. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO ETT BY TAU 12 AND TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 36 AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//