WTPS32 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 173.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 173.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 30.7S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 33.8S 176.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 173.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 101326Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A 35 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 12P CONTINUES TO SPEED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE (ROUGHLY 50 KNOTS); THUS, STORM RELATIVE SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 25 CELSIUS AND CONTINUE TO DROP AS TC 12P SPEEDS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 12P IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), SUCH AS A HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD. COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOMES SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//