WTIO30 FMEE 160705



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  7  (ELIAKIM)



2.A POSITION 2018/03/16 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 50.4 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY    DECIMAL FOUR

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 380 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 300 SE: 290 SW: 220 NW: 130

48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 0





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/03/16 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

24H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

36H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0



ELIAKIM IS MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA. THE RAGGED AND

STILL LARGE EYE, THAT HAS FORMED LAST NIGHT, IS NOW MOSTLY OVERLAND.

AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE

50-55 KT RANGE.



THE TRACK HAS BEND WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS SINCE A FEW HOURS AS A

POSSIBLE LAND EFFECT. THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ANTONGIL BAY BEFORE A SECOND LANDFALL.

ALTHOUGH THE INNERCORE IS CONTRACTING, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD

PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.



SATURDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE

THEREFORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER

SEA AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE RIDGE AT EAST

AND THE ARRIVING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF

THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY

UNCERTAIN.



ONCE OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM

SHOULD HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF A

NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT

THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT LONG RANGE, ELIAKIM MAY BEGIN

ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.



ELIAKIM REMAINS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS (WITH

ASSOCIATED GUSTS UP TO 130-150 KM/H) ARE ESTIMATED IN THE REAR PART

OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW

HOURS AFTER THE CENTRAL CALM. THE STORM SURGE THREAT IN THE BOTTOM OF

THE ANTONGIL BAY SHOULD GRADUALLY  EASE AFTER THE CENTER PASSED OVER

AND WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AFTER. THE STORM SURGE COULD STILL REACH 1M

ON THE COAST LATER TODAY SOUTH OF THE ANTONGIL BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS

VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE NOR THE WAVE SET-UP.=