WTIO30 FMEE 161835



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20172018

1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION  7  (ELIAKIM)



2.A POSITION 2018/03/16 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 49.6 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL SIX

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

48 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

24H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

36H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

OVER THE LAST HOURS, ELIAKIM CROSSED THE ANTONGIL BAY. ONCE ITS

CIRCULATION CENTER LANDED ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAY, THE SYSTEM

DELAYED AGAIN ITS ADVANCE INLAND AND EVEN TRACKED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD

ALONG THE COAST OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. IN THE NEXT HOURS, ELIAKIM IS

EXPECTED TO GO INLAND MORE FRANKLY. THE CLOUD TOPS SIGNIFICANTLY

WARMED BUT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED YET, AS

SHOWN BY THE 1446Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE.



SATURDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE

THEREFORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE RECONSTITUTION OF A RIDGE IN THE EAST SHOULD

DRIVE A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN IN THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SUNDAY,

THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AND ITS TRACK SHOULD

GRADUALLY BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH

ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN

RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF THE LOCALISATION

AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN.



TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVERLANDAU

. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE

STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH

SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT LONG

RANGE, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING

BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.



DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, COASTAL REGIONS LOCATED BETWEEN

THE ANTONGIL BAY AND TOAMASINA SHOULD STILL UNDERGO WIND GUSTS UP TO

120-130KM/H LOCALLY. ELIAKIM ALSO BRINGS IMPORTANT RAINFALL OVER THE

NORTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR. THE STORM SURGE COULD STILL REACH 1M ON

THE COAST TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE ANTONGIL BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE

DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WAVE SET-UP.=