WTIO30 FMEE 170640



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/7/20172018

1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION  7  (ELIAKIM)



2.A POSITION 2018/03/17 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 49.3 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 420 SE: 420 SW: 0 NW: 460

34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

24H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

36H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/03/22 06 UTC: 37.3 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELIAKIM SLOWLY MOVED INLAND. CONVECTION NEAR

THE CENTER IS ATTENUATING, BUT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE

PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS REMAINS STRONG, OVER LAND, AND ALSO OVER THE

NORTHEN PART OF THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL, AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST

OF MALAGASY.CONSIDERING THE LAST VIOSIBLE SATELITE IMAGERY, THE LAST

POSITION OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED EASTWARDS.



TODAY, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE

UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION. THE RECONSTITUTION OF A RIDGE IN THE EAST SHOULD DRIVE A

SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN IN THE COURSE OF THE DAY.







 SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA. ITS TRACK

SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE

OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF

THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY

UNCERTAIN.



TODAY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVERLAND.

 SUNDAY EVENING, ELIAKIM SHOULD  CAME BACK OVER SEA, AND BENEFITE IN

A FIRST TIME OF GOOD POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVENGENCE, THEN THE

STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH

SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.

FROM TUESDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A

GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.



WIND GUSTS SHOULD STILL REACH 100 KM/H IN THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN

TOAMASINA AND STE MARIE ISLAND TODAY. ELIAKIM BRINGS IMPORTANT

RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR.=