WTIO30 FMEE 171912 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20172018 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 2.A POSITION 2018/03/17 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 49.7 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 48H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 60H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2018/03/22 18 UTC: 42.2 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ELIAKIM HAS BEEN TRACKED ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBS SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND, TAMATAVE ALONG WITH A BUOY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ANTONGIL BAY. ACCORDINGLY TO ALL THIS DATA, THE OBSERVED TRACK TODAY HAS BEEN SHIFT EASTWARDS. ELIAKIM HAS FASTEN ALONG A SOUTHWARDS TRACK AND THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED NOW OVER THE COASTLINES OF EAST MADAGASCAR, SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST OF THE SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA OF 1735Z SHOW 30-35 KT WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT.THEREFORE ELIAKIM IS CONSIDERED AGAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE RELOCATION HAS SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS FURTHER EAST BUT THE GENERAL REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. ELIAKIM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE STRUCTURE OF ELIAKIM HAS BEEN HIGHLY IMPACTED BY LAND INTERACTION. MOREOVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE FROM THE STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY END THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE. HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE STILL THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM ELIAKIM. THIS HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR AND ALONG THE CENTRAL EAST COAST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.=